- New report by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and the European Cultural Foundation (ECF) suggests a culture war is being waged on Europe by Donald Trump and the American MAGA movement. These attacks are being effectuated through Washington’s support of ideological and political allies on the continent, and the humiliation of Europe on the world stage.
Titled “Reality show: Why Europe must not cave in Trump’s culture war”, the study argues that the U.S. President is actively seeking to interfere in elections; re-frame the Transatlantic relationship around conservative values; and position freedom of speech as a rallying point for his allies in the EU. It notes that the reticence of European leaders, when it comes to dealing with Trump, is only inviting such a treatment.
The study depicts the EU as a character akin to ‘Truman Burbank’ – a role played by Jim Carey in the acclaimed 1998 comedy, ‘The Truman Show’ – and argues that the bloc’s governments spend most of their energy reacting to crises scripted by Trump and his European allies – from refugee panics to tariff threats – rather than setting the agenda themselves. It predicts that there will come a time when European leaders realise the stakes are not just winning these skirmishes but also taking control of Europe’s own story.
Utilising research and available polls from each of the EU’s 27 member states – which, taken together, show a strong and resilient European Sentiment (i.e., a sense of belonging to a common space, sharing a common future, and subscribing to common values) – Zerka identifies five distinct country groupings when it comes to engagement with Trump’s culture war, and writes that conditions in Europe are “ripe" for the EU to break free from its dependence on the U.S.
Europe, today, is navigating a full-blown culture war with Donald Trump’s America, according to a major new report published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and European Cultural Foundation (ECF). The study, which comprises research from all 27 EU member states and available polls (including ECFR’s own earlier surveys), suggests that the Transatlantic relationship – between Europe and the United States – is currently gripped in a struggle that is as much about the values that dominate European politics and define the West, as it is about Europe’s dignity, credibility and identity as an autonomous international actor. Authored by senior policy fellow, Pawel Zerka, the study is the fourth edition of an annual monitoring of European sentiment carried out by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and the European Cultural Foundation (ECF). Titled ‘Reality show: Why Europe must not cave in Trump’s culture war’, it employs the plot of the acclaimed 1998 comedy, starring Jim Carey, to describe how this culture war is unfolding. It follows the 2024 edition of the ‘European Sentiment Compass’, “Welcome to Barbieland: What the year of wars and elections has revealed about European sentiment”, by the same author, which revealed a series of “blind spots” in the EU project when it comes to its shifts away from its values and ideals.
Like Truman Burbank – who lives his life unaware that he is being filmed as part of a television show, with action around him orchestrated by an all-powerful executive producer – the study argues that the EU is navigating struggles thrown its way by the Trump administration, including matters of trade and commitment to European security, and messages that intensify political polarisation at home, in a routine-like manner. These challenges occupy European leaders while simultaneously creating a smokescreen that portrays Europe as a subordinate partner, with no claim to agency, in its relations with the U.S. Left unchallenged, this risks morphing into effective cultural subordination. The report contends that, like in the plot of the Truman Show, there will come a time when the main character – in this case, Europe - will need to decide whether to strike out and “write its own story”.
The study indicates that conditions are “ripe” for European leaders to navigate their way out of a “film set” that is presently directed by the U.S. President. It suggests that “European sentiment” remains strong across the continent, despite efforts by some of the U.S. MAGA movement to stoke division in EU member states. Indeed, among its key findings, the report reveals growing citizen trust – and the highest since 2007 – for the EU. It also identifies a similar trend following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, with 12 countries signalling increased faith in the EU between autumn 2024 and spring 2025 – most sharply in Sweden, France, Denmark, and Portugal. Although American influence, strength of European sentiment, and domestic ideological battles are not uniform across the EU27 – as evidenced by the country profiles of this report – no member state is exempt from being embroiled in this culture war, according to Zerka.
To this end, Zerka has divided countries of the EU27 into five distinct groupings, with regards their involvement: - The first, the “director’s crew” (i.e. countries that are actively producing Trump’s show in Europe), includes governments that amplify MAGA narratives, such as Viktor Orban’s Fidesz-KDNP coalition in Hungary, as well as the administrations of Giorgia Meloni’s and Robert Fico in Italy and Slovakia, respectively.
- The second, the “tempters” (i.e. those that normalise the Trumpian script in the EU either through domestic MAGA-style activism, a culture of humility towards America, or both), comprise Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden, and have a shared characteristic of offering the EU comfort, status and belonging, thereby facilitating its remaining on “set” and within the bounds of the status quo.
- The third, the “prophets” (i.e. those that play the reverse role, by revealing the truth and urging the protagonist – Europe – to break free), features a single country, Denmark, where political leaders advocate for strategic autonomy and insist Europe does not have to follow Trump’s script. (However, the author argues, Sweden and Finland are well positioned to play that role too – if only their governments demonstrated a greater readiness to stand up to Trump.)
- The fourth, the “extras” (i.e. countries that are present on set but do not drive the plot), lack the influence of the tempters even when they host MAGA-like ideological battles, as is the case in Bulgaria and Slovenia, or when they display diffidence vis-à-vis the US (Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). And even when they are strongly pro-European (like Luxembourg), they lack the firepower of the prophets. In some cases, countries of this group (namely, Cyprus and Malta) do not even appear to be present on set.
- And, last, the “door holders” (i.e. those whose choices could determine the arc of the EU’s story) comprises Germany, France and Poland. These countries feature because of their political weight, but also because each could tilt towards the prophets or the director’s crew. For example, in Germany, the chancellor Friedrich Merz argues for independence from the US, but faces a divided coalition and surging Alternative for Germany that possesses a sharply different world view. Similarly, in France, a far-right presidential victory in 2027 (or sooner) could shift the country from a leadership position that advocates strategic autonomy into one that sits within Trump’s orbit. And, in Poland, the results of the next election in 2027 (or earlier) will decide whether MAGA’s foothold turns into a stronghold, or whether the country once again – like in 2023 – becomes a laboratory of resistance to the ‘New Right’.
The principal takeaway of the study is that, for all of the goodwill evident in EU member states, Europe is stuck in a ‘Truman moment’ (i.e. one in which the set is understood to be artificial but where the main character lacks the courage to walk off and define their future). While many of Europe’s leaders have adopted a strategy of flattery in their engagements with the 47th U.S. President, Trump's known disdain of Europe, and his track record of behaviour and threats towards its members, cannot be ignored. Resistance to filling gaps in the EU’s autonomy, in such a climate, will ultimately put the bloc on a path toward total vassalisation, Zerka writes.
Among his recommendations, Zerka urges European leaders to recognise that they face a coordinated international movement determined to overturn Europe’s liberal democratic order. He argues that they should respond by utilising the ultimate tool in their arsenal: strong European sentiment, which should allow the continent to build strategic autonomy – step by step in defence, tech, energy, and completion of the single market – even if this means sharper transatlantic tensions. He admits that, within the EU, this will require greater integrity and leadership from parties of the political mainstream, as well as the reclaiming of contested concepts such as sovereignty, nationalism and patriotism from the New Right. However, this is a step worth taking, if Europe is to break free from a future of American vassalage, and become the “author of its own story”.
Wider findings from the 2025 European Sentiment Compass include: - J.D. Vance set the scene for a clash between the U.S. and Europe at the 2025 Munich Security Conference. According to Zerka, the U.S Vice President’s now-famous speech revealed how, and the terms by which, Washington would wage a culture war on Europe: through unconcealed interference in European elections; a deliberate framing of US–EU relations as a “values divide”; and emphasis on freedom of speech, and its defence, as a rallying point for allied parties of the MAGA movement in Europe.
- Trump is seeking to move the ideological centre of gravity of European politics in MAGA’s direction. Poland provides the most consequential case, with Trump welcoming nationalist presidential candidate Karol Nawrocki at the White House and boosting him on social media ahead of national elections. As the May ballot drew near, the US-born Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) also made its first appearance in Poland, featuring secretary of homeland security, Kristi Noem, who tied future American military support explicitly to a favourable outcome for Nawrocki. The anointed candidate defeated centrist Rafal Trzaskowski in a razor-thin race, with Poland now a major MAGA foothold in Europe.
- This is evidenced by Washington’s attacks on parties of the political mainstream. This reflects a deeper assumption of Trump’s America: European politics are not “foreign” but part of America’s domestic battlefield. A notorious post on the Department’s website by staffer Samuel Samson calling for “civilisational allies in Europe” and accusing the EU mainstream of betraying Western heritage, has been mainstreamed into the federal bureaucracy, albeit not signed by Trump or senior officials. Europe, he wrote, had become “a hotbed of digital censorship, mass migration, restrictions on religious freedom, and numerous other assaults on democratic self-governance.”
- Free speech has become a weapon of choice for MAGA and Europe’s ‘New Right’. It brings two extra advantages to Trump’s America in its culture war with Europe. First, it lets MAGA claim the mantle of the “free world”, a position amplified within the EU by the likes of Hungary’s Viktor Orban, and has allowed Trump to recruit allies in Europe’s far right who otherwise keep their distance, including the National Rally (RN) in France or Geert Wilders in the Netherlands.
- ‘Backstage’, however, a deeper contest over Europe’s autonomy is taking place. Trade fights can be dismissed as mere trade fights; NATO debates as routine disputes about fair burden-sharing harking back to the very first days of the alliance; and Trump’s transactionalism as a result of the US getting tired of its global obligations. But when Trump threatens tariffs, hints at disregarding the NATO’s Article 5, dismisses the EU as an American foe, ridicules European leaders, or bypasses EU institutions in favour of bilateral deals, he is not merely practicing hardball diplomacy. He is cementing a narrative that casts Europe as a subordinate actor, lacking strategic independence. These dynamics were recently illustrated in the EU-US July trade deal, in the budget negotiations at NATO, and in Ukraine diplomacy, and if left unchallenged, risk becoming self-fulfilling.
- The two levels of this culture war – the ‘on-set’ fight over values and the ‘backstage’ one over identity – are deeply intertwined and cannot be understood without the other. When European leaders are absorbed by domestic divides, the EU as a whole becomes less capable of emancipation or pushback against Trump’s belittling treatment, and as long as Europe looks small in its dealings with America, the US president can claim not just material but also moral superiority in leading the West. In this way, culture war serves Realpolitik and Realpolitik facilitates culture war.
- European sentiment is strong, and conditions are ripe for a ‘Truman moment’ in the Transatlantic relationship. Trust in the EU is at its highest since 2007. In nearly every member state, majorities feel attached to Europe, identify as EU citizens, and are optimistic about the bloc’s future. Increasingly, people see Europe as not just an economic project, but as a community of values, security, and shared destiny.
- To seize this moment, European leaders must be willing to leave their comfort zones. This requires, first, that mainstream parties stop aping the far-right in a bid for voters. This strategy legitimises xenophobia, intolerance and contempt for the rule of law while demobilising their own base. Instead, they should reclaim terms like sovereignty and patriotism to show how these values can serve a stronger, more inclusive Europe, which reflects the EU’s diversity. Second, national leaders should reject the “flatter, appease, distract” strategy when it comes to Trump. Europe must build its own strength – in defence, technology, and global partnerships – even if that leads to transatlantic friction. Third, the leadership of the European Commission needs to be bold and deploy instruments like the Digital Services Act and trade tools and ensure new initiatives such as the “European Democracy Shield” and others are properly funded and enforced. And last, the power-aspiring New Right parties must recognise the stakes: this isn’t just a cultural battle, but a struggle over Europe’s agency. Even for illiberal governments, the EU remains essential to protect sovereignty and prosperity in an increasingly volatile world.
Commenting on the findings of the study of ‘European Sentiment’, author and ECFR senior policy fellow, Pawel Zerka, said: “In Trump’s culture war, Europe itself – more than any leader, party, or policy – is the target. The U.S. President has revealed his hand in this regard, by excluding EU leaders from talks on the future of Ukraine, attacking mainstream political parties of the continent, and extorting the Brussels institutions in trade negotiations. This has thrust the EU into a ‘Truman moment’, whereby it must choose between vassalisation or self-determination in its relationship with the U.S. This does not mean Europe should provoke Trump at every turn. Sometimes buying time is necessary. But these arrangements make sense only if European leaders treat them as placeholders, while Europe doubles down on its autonomy. Europe has incredible strengths that should allow it to thrive rather than suffer in a world order whose destabilisation has been accelerated by the US president. And the culture war with Trump’s America offers it an opportunity to prove it.”
According to André Wilkens, Director of the European Cultural Foundation, whose organisation is co-responsible for the European Sentiment Compass alongside ECFR: “It’s culture, stupid!” is a thought that urgently needs to enter the mindset of European leaders. Only then will national governments and EU institutions be able to respond effectively to Trump’s next provocation. Only then will leaders of political parties be able to frame their electoral strategies in ways that respond to people’s genuine attachment to Europe – thus limiting the appeal of Trump’s ideological allies in their countries. The European Sentiment is not abstract utopianism. It’s about real feelings for Europe and Europeans’ readiness to fight for them. The next 7-year EU budget will be Europe’s litmus test. The EU must invest in culture’s multiple dimensions – including media and civil society – to make the bloc fit for the battle for Europe.”
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NOTES TO EDITORS:
AUTHOR:
Pawel Zerka is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. As lead analyst on public opinion, Zerka spearheads the organisation’s polling and data research on foreign affairs. Zerka has been part of the ECFR team since 2017, having worked previously as a foreign policy expert in Poland. He holds a PhD in economics and an MA in international relations from the Warsaw School of Economics. You can his profile here.
METHODOLOGY:
This study utilised ECFR’s network of associate researchers to distil attitudes across all individual EU countries. To do this, 27 ECFR associate researchers from the respective 27 EU member states analysed the political situation in their countries, studied opinion polls and other research, and interviewed relevant policymakers and policy experts. Recent polling by the European Council on Foreign Relations is available here.
DONOR & PARTNER:
The European Sentiment Compass is a joint project and initiative by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and the European Cultural Foundation (ECF). EVENT:
The launch of the European Sentiment Compass 2025 will take place on 23 September from 16:00 to 18:00pm CEST at the House of European History in Brussels. You can register here to attend in person, while a live stream of the event will also be available without registration. |
