• Global poll, published today, reveals large numbers of citizens in the world are upbeat about Donald Trump’s return to the US White House. 

• Many believe Trump will not only be good for America but bring peace or reduce tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and US-China relations.

• In contrast, US allies in Europe and South Korea are pessimistic about the incoming president – indicating a further weakening of the ‘West’. 

• In Ukraine, respondents are more positive than not about the impact Trump might have on ending their country’s conflict with Russia. But they are deeply conflicted about the terms of a possible compromise settlement with Moscow.  

• The poll suggests Europeans will struggle to find internal unity or global power in leading a resistance to the new Trump administration. However, it also shows many in the world regard the EU as a player equal to the US and China – a strength

• European leaders should draw on as they enter the turbulent new presidential term. 
  Foreign policy experts, Mark Leonard, Ivan Krastev and Timothy Garton Ash argue that rather than harking back to a post-cold war liberal order, Europeans should focus on understanding and embracing opportunities in the new world. 

• ECFR will host a webinar to explore the findings of its global public opinion poll, featuring the three authors of the report. You can find more details about this event and RSVP to attend here. 
  

Donald Trump’s return to the US White House, next week, is widely seen as a “good thing” for peace in the world, American influence, and dialogue between leading powers. However, this feeling is not shared by some of Washington’s closest allies, including citizens from the United Kingdom, the EU and South Korea. This is the central finding of a major new multi-country polling report, published today by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in cooperation with Oxford University’s Europe in a Changing World project. The study, “Alone in a Trumpian world: The EU and global public opinion after the US elections”, is underpinned by survey data from 24 countries, and finds that public attitudes towards US power and its global role have shifted.  
 
The US is no longer understood to be spreading its values and acting as a global defender of the liberal international order. Instead, contrary to president-elect, Donald Trump’s talk of “Making America Great Again”, few in the world see a future in which the US will hold the mantle of the globe’s leading superpower. Indeed, ECFR’s poll shows that most respondents see China – rather than America – as the country that will assume this role in the coming period. This suggests that Trump’s return comes as American geopolitical exceptionalism is beginning to recede, and points to a destination whereby the US will sit among other great powers in a multipolar world.  

Key findings from ECFR’s latest multi-country survey include: 

• Citizens of leading middle powers are optimistic about the return of Donald Trump. In countries from India and China to Türkiye and Brazil, majorities or pluralities think the return of Trump will be a ‘good thing’ for peace in the world, their country, and American citizens. This is especially pronounced in India (where 82% see it as a ‘good thing’ for peace in the world; 84% view it as good for ‘their country’; and 85% a ‘good thing’ for American citizens), and Saudi Arabia (57%, for peace in the world; 61%, for their country; and 69%, for American citizens). 

• Trump’s peace-maker pitch, vis-à-vis Ukraine and the Middle East, has resonated globally. In India, for example, large majorities (65% for Ukraine; 62% for the Middle East) believe that Trump’s return will make peace more likely. This position is also evident in Saudi Arabia (62% for Ukraine; 54% for the Middle East), Russia (61% for Ukraine; 41% for the Middle East), China (60% for Ukraine; 48% for the Middle East) and the US (52% for Ukraine; 44% for the Middle East). Ukrainians, however, are more reticent when it comes to Trump's ability to bring peace, with surveyed respondents broadly divided on the question (39% believing his return will help bring peace to Ukraine, and 35% saying it is less likely). Optimism about Trump’s peace-making capacities is the weakest in Europe and South Korea.  

• America’s allies are nervous about Trump 2.0 - and doubt it will bring positive change. In the UK, South Korea and countries of the EU – all of which are key allies of the US – there is scepticism that a Trump presidency will make any difference to the situation in Ukraine or the Middle East. Just 24% in the UK, 31% in South Korea, and 34% in the EU (average result across 11 EU countries polled) believe Trump’s return would make achieving peace in Ukraine more likely, while even fewer people (16% in the UK, 25% in the EU and 19% in South Korea) believe he will make it more likely to achieve peace in the Middle East. More broadly, just one in five in the EU (22%) say they now view the US as an ally. This is down significantly from two years ago (31%) and stands in contrast to the proportion of Americans who view the EU as an ally (45%). 

• US influence in the world is predicted to grow – although few believe it will result in global dominance. The prevailing view, across the publics surveyed, is that the US will have “more” global influence over the next ten years however they do not see it as the beginning of ‘Making America Great Again’. The idea of US dominance is not widely shared, with majorities in China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Indonesia, South Africa, Switzerland, Brazil, the EU, and the UK, predicting China will become the strongest power in the world in the next 20 years. Only in Ukraine and South Korea are there majorities who consider such an outcome “unlikely” – while the public in India and the US is divided on this point. 

• The report identifies five distinct citizen groups on Trump’s return to the White House. “Trump Welcomers”, who are most pronounced in India (75%) and Saudi Arabia (49%), and popular in Russia (38%), South Africa (35%), China (34%), and Brazil (33%), see the president-elect as positive for Americans and for peace in the world. “Never Trumpers”, who record the highest shares of the public in the UK (50%), Switzerland (37%), and the EU (28%), see his victory in a negative light – both for American citizens and for peace in the world. “Peace-seekers”, who consider Trump’s re-election as better for peace in the world than for American citizens, are most numerous in China (21%), Switzerland (16%) and Ukraine (13%). The “Conflicted”, which herald from countries that are at risk of American reshoring – including 48% of South Koreans – believe Trump’s election is worse for peace in the world than it is for American citizens. And, last, there are the “Uncertains”, who are striking a cautious ‘wait-and-see’ approach, saying that Trump is “neither good nor bad” for American citizens and peace in the world. This position is particularly pronounced in Ukraine (20%) and Russia (16%). 

• The EU is held in high regard – with many seeing growth in the bloc’s influence. Majorities in India (62%), South Africa (60%), Brazil (58%), and Saudi Arabia (51%), and pluralities in Ukraine (49%), Türkiye (48%), China (44%), Indonesia (42%) and the US (38%) believe the EU will wield “more influence”, globally, in the coming decade. The bloc is also widely seen as an “ally” or “necessary partner” by respondents of the countries surveyed. This view is most pronounced in Ukraine (93% ally or partner, vs. 4% rival or adversary), the United States (76% ally or partner, vs. 9% rival or adversary), South Korea (79% vs. 14%). But it’s also a majority view everywhere else – except for Russia.  

Foreign policy experts and report authors, Mark Leonard, Ivan Krastev and Timothy Garton Ash, suggest European leaders may struggle to find internal unity or global allies if they try to shape a worldwide liberal resistance to the president-elect. In the last two years, with the Biden administration standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Europe on Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was still possible to speak of a ‘united West’ on foreign policy. However, with Trump’s return, divisions run not just between the US and Europe, and other key allies such as South Korea, but within the EU itself.  
 
The authors identify trends that could assist the EU against this backdrop, and help it become stronger and more united in the coming period. First, its sense of certainty when it comes to its own interests and shaping relations with powers. Secondly, global perceptions of its status as a world power and growing influence. And lastly, its potential for strategic partnerships, with countries such as Brazil, India and South Africa, where people broadly see the EU as both powerful and as an ally or a partner. The recent EU-Mercosur trade agreement shows the kind of deals that a more united EU could make, the authors note, and recommend that instead of posing as a moral arbiter, Europe should build its domestic strength and seek new bilateral partnerships to defend its own values. 
 
Commenting on the findings, co-author and Chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, Ivan Krastev, said: 
 
“Europe is quite lonely in its anxiety about Trump’s return to the White House. While many Europeans view the president-elect as a disrupter, others, elsewhere in the world, see him as a peacemaker. This position leaves Europe at a crossroads in its relations with the new American administration.” 
 
ECFR co-founder and director, Mark Leonard, added: 
 
“Although many Europeans are freaking out about the prospects of Trump in the White House, most of the rest of the world believe his presidency will be good for the United States, the world and peace in Ukraine and the Middle East. Rather than trying to lead a global resistance to Trump, Europeans should take responsibility for their own interests – and find ways of building new relationships in a more transactional world.” 
 
Co-author and historian, Timothy Garton Ash, said: 
 
“Europe may stand almost alone in a Trumpian world, but this doesn’t mean we Europeans are powerless to act. There are opportunities in this new, transactional space for alliances and influence. Indeed, the very fact that the EU is held in such high regard by people in so many countries and is even expected to grow in strength in the coming decade, should give leaders hope that there is room for a strong and independent-minded Europe in the world.” 
 
This new survey and accompanying analysis form part of a wider project by the European Council on Foreign Relations to understand the views of citizens across major global issues. Prior polling-backed publications include examinations of European attitudes towards Ukraine and Russia prior, six months into, and one year into the current conflict; the extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic has re-ordered political views and identities in Europe; and public opinion analysis of views towards, and expectations of, the United States and other international powers. 
  
You can find more information, and details of other outputs within this programme, at: https://www.ecfr.eu/europeanpower/unlock. 
 

-ENDS- 

NOTES TO EDITORS: 

AUTHORS  

Mark Leonard is the founding director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the first pan-European think tank. He also presents a weekly podcast, Mark Leonard’s World in 30 Minutes. His latest book, ‘The Age of Unpeace’, was published to critical acclaim and featured in a list of “must-reads'' in the Financial Times.

Ivan Krastev is Chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia and a Permanent Fellow at the IWM Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna. He is a founding Board Member of ECFR, and a Member of the Board of Trustees of the International Crisis Group. He is the author of ‘Is It Tomorrow, Yet? The Paradoxes of the Pandemic’. He is a columnist for the New York Times and Financial Times.

Timothy Garton Ash is Professor of European Studies emeritus in the University of Oxford and a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. A founding member of ECFR, he is the author, most recently, of 'Homelands: A Personal History of Europe'. He writes a column on international affairs in the Guardian, which is widely syndicated in Europe, Asia and the Americas.

EVENT  

On 15 January, 2pm CET, ECFR will host a webinar to explore the findings of its global public opinion poll, featuring the three authors of the report. You can find more details about this event and RSVP to attend here. 

INTERVIEWS
 
ECFR experts are available for interview with interested media. Please contact them via their linked profiles or email communications@ecfr.eu to arrange. 

POLLING & METHODOLOGY 

This report is based on a public opinion poll of adult populations (aged 18 and over) conducted in November 2024 in 16 European countries (Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Spain, Switzerland, Türkiye, Ukraine and the United Kingdom), and eight non-European countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea and the United States). The total number of respondents was 28,549.  
 
In Russia, Türkiye and all countries outside Europe the polls were conducted by Gallup International Association through a network of independent local partners and cross-country panel operators as an online survey in: Brazil (1,000; 18-25 November; through MarktAnalysis); China (1,005 respondents; 12-21 November; through Distance/Dynata); Indonesia (1,000; 15-20 November; through DEKA); Russia (1,000; 14-25 November; through Be Media Consultant); Saudi Arabia (1,002; 13-22 November; through Distance/Dynata); South Africa (1,010; 12-21 November; through Distance/Dynata); South Korea (1,000; 13-17 November; through Gallup Korea); Türkiye (1,005; 12-21 November; through Distance/Dynata); and the US (1,012; 15 November; through Distance/Survey Monkey). The method in India was the face-to-face survey (1,008; 20 November-4 December; through Convergent). The choice of face-to-face surveys in India was directed by the poor quality of internet in India’s smaller cities.  
 
In Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Türkiye and the US the sample was nationally representative of basic demographics. In China, the poll included panellists only from the country’s four biggest agglomerations: Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. In India, rural areas and tier-3 cities were not covered. And in Russia, only cities of at least 100,000 inhabitants were covered. Therefore, data from China, India and Russia should be considered as representative only for the population covered by the poll. Given the politically sensitive character of several questions, the results from China, Russia and Saudi Arabia should also be interpreted with caution. 
 
In the remaining European countries, the polls were conducted online by Datapraxis and YouGov in Bulgaria (1,014; 7-29 November); Denmark (1,099; 7-26 November); France (2,017; 7 November-2 December); Germany (2,003; 7-28 November); Hungary (1,023; 7-28 November); Italy (1,531; 7-29 November);  Poland (1,063; 7-29 November); Portugal (1,000; 7-27 November); Romania (1,010; 7-26 November); Spain (1,030; 7-27 November); Switzerland (1,082; 8-26 November), and the UK (2,073; 7-26 November). Polls were conducted by Datapraxis and Norstat in Estonia (1,061; 11 November – 5 December). In Ukraine, polls were conducted by DataPraxis and Rating Group (1,501; 15-20 November) via telephone interviews (CATI), with respondents selected using randomly generated telephone numbers. The data was then weighted to basic demographics. Fully accounting for the population changes due to the war is difficult, but adjustments have been made to account for the territory under Russian occupation. This, combined with the probability-based sampling approach, strengthens the level of representativeness of the survey and generally reflects the attitudes of Ukrainian public opinion in wartime conditions. 
 
In this press release, as well as in the referenced paper, results for the ‘EU’ correspond to a simple average across the above-mentioned eleven EU countries, unless stated otherwise. 
 
GRAPHICS FOR MEDIA 

ECFR has produced survey-related graphics, which are free for media use. They can be accessed here. 
 
PARTNERS 

This polling and analysis were the result of a collaboration between ECFR and the ‘Europe in a Changing World’ project of the Dahrendorf Programme at St Antony's College, University of Oxford. ECFR partnered with the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, International Center for Defence and Security, and Think Tank Europa on this project. The study is part of the Re:Order project funded by the Stiftung Mercator.

ABOUT ECFR: 

The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) is a pan-European think-tank that aims to conduct cutting-edge independent research in pursuit of a coherent, effective, and values-based European foreign policy. With a network of offices in seven European capitals, over 100 staff from more than 25 different countries and a team of associated researchers in the EU 27 member states, ECFR is uniquely placed to provide pan-European perspectives on the biggest strategic challenges and choices confronting Europeans today. ECFR is an independent charity and funded from a variety of sources. For more details, please visit ecfr.eu/about.    

The European Council on Foreign Relations does not take collective positions. This report, like all publications of the European Council on Foreign Relations, represents only the views of its authors.